Qualcomm's iPhone Bet Shrinking Fast: Snapdragon Share Plummets, Modem Future Uncertain
Qualcomm is facing a significant shift in its relationship with Apple, with the chipmaker reporting a dramatic decline in its component share for the upcoming iPhone 18 Pro Max. Revenue from Apple products is projected to fall more sharply starting in Q4, according to Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon, attributing it to supply constraints rather than any action by the tech giant.
A Gamble That’s Losing Steam
The latest figures reveal that Qualcomm’s share of components for the next iPhone launch is well below 20%, a stark contrast to previous models like the iPhone 17 Pro Max, which relied heavily on Qualcomm’s Snapdragon modem. Rumors of a split modem design – utilizing Apple’s own C2 chip alongside Qualcomm’s – are now looking increasingly improbable, potentially impacting consumer choices this fall.
Amon’s focus is shifting towards data center revenue, projecting $5 billion by 2027, signaling a strategic pivot away from the smartphone market. However, the current quarter is expected to be weaker than anticipated, with Qualcomm reporting a 20% drop in phone chip revenue compared to the same period last year.
The Modem Dilemma: mmWave vs. Battery Life
The debate surrounding the iPhone 18 Pro’s modem is intensifying. While Samsung’s Galaxy S26 Ultra leverages its own Snapdragon modem for mmWave 5G connectivity – a feature absent in the Qualcomm-dependent iPhone – consumers are prioritizing battery life and privacy. The leaked Tata bill of materials indicated Apple is sourcing both its C2 modem and a Qualcomm Snapdragon X80 transceiver with an SDR875, suggesting a dual-sourcing strategy to maintain mmWave support in the US.
If Apple adopts a solely C2-based modem, users could see improved battery efficiency, access to Apple’s Precise Location privacy setting, and a potential gap in mmWave 5G capabilities. Despite the potential drawbacks, Apple’s own iPhone 17 Pro review highlighted the enhanced battery life offered by its internal modems, leading to a belief that a C2 rollout would represent a net positive for the average user.
A Pragmatic Conclusion
Ultimately, the decision hinges on whether the C2 modem can deliver mmWave 5G performance. For US consumers, trading mmWave for battery life and privacy gains appears to be a reasonable compromise. Qualcomm’s future success may well depend on successfully navigating this evolving landscape, shifting its focus towards data centers while acknowledging the diminishing role of the smartphone modem.